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    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

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    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

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    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique, commonly known as GERT, is a network analysis technique used in project management that allows probabilistic treatment both network logic and estimation of activity duration. The technique was first described in 1966 by Dr. Alan B. Pritsker of Purdue University and WW Happ.[1][2]

    Compared to other techniques, GERT is only rarely used in complex systems. Nevertheless, the GERT approach addresses the majority of the limitations associated with PERT/CPM technique. GERT allows loops between tasks. The fundamental drawback associated with the GERT technique is the complex programme (Monte Carlo simulation) required to model the GERT system. Development in GERT includes Q-GERTS - allowing the user to consider queuing within the system.

    General GERT rules[edit]

    GERT uses activity-on-arrow notation only. That means that each activity is described on arrow. The nodes are used to connect activities, but also to determine type and conditions of relations between them.

    Each task has two parameters: duration and probability of appearance.

    There are three logical operators in GERT which concern activities incoming to the node:

    XOR - alternative (only one path possible)

    OR - alternative (one or more paths can be performed)

    AND - all paths have to be performed

    The most common is AND, which means that every incoming activity has to happen before the outcoming one start.

    There are also two types of relations that concern activities outcoming from the node:

    deterministic - every outcoming activity has probability equal to 1, which means that every one will be performed

    probabilistic - each outcoming activity has some probability of appearance.

    GERT vs. other network diagrams[edit]

    Its much less popular than PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) or CPM (Critical Path Method). However it has can offer much more than those methods. PERT or CPM are very popular in most projects, but they have their limitations. The main are:

    there are no alternative paths - all activities have to be performed

    there are no loops - it is not possible to repeat activity, next similar activity has to be added

    there are no decisions in the diagram - no and, or, xor options which help to choose proper path

    there are no scaling - it is not possible to replace some detailed group of activities with the one summary task.

    GERT doesn't have those limitations. But it comes at a cost of more sophisticated diagram.

    References[edit]

    ^ Pritsker, A. A. B. (April 1966). "GERT: Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique" (PDF). RM-4973-NASA. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract No. NASr-21. Retrieved 2006-12-05.^ A. Alan B. Pritsker, 2nd Edition, Wiley, 1979 ISBN 0-470-26648-1

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    स्रोत : en.wikipedia.org

    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

    A B C D E F G H I J K L M N…

    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

    Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique, commonly known as GERT, is a network analysis technique used in project management that allows probabilistic treatment both network logic and estimation of activity duration. The technique was first described in 1966 by Dr. Alan B. Pritsker of Purdue University and WW Happ.

    Compared to other techniques, GERT is only rarely used in complex systems. Nevertheless, the GERT approach addresses the majority of the limitations associated with PERT/CPM technique. GERT allows loops between tasks. The fundamental drawback associated with the GERT technique is the complex programme (Monte Carlo simulation) required to model the GERT system. Development in GERT includes Q-GERTS – allowing the user to consider queuing within the system.

    Reference: Wikipedia

    स्रोत : finansleksikon.no

    GERT analysis

    This article examines how project managers can use GERT to manage their projects.

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    Project Management Using GERT Analysis

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    ARTICLE September 1978

    Project Management Quarterly

    Taylor, Bernard W. | Moore, Laurence. J.

    How to cite this article:

    Taylor, B. W. & Moore, L. J. (1978). Project Management Using GERT Analysis. Project Management Quarterly, 9(3), 15–20.

    Reprints and Permissions

    BERNARD W. TAYLOR, III

    LAURENCE J. MOORE

    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

    Application of network analysis to project planning and control has been extensive since the late 1950’s [12], PERT and CPM, the best known network modeling techniques, have been applied to a diverse number of projects for planning and control purposes. However, PERT and CPM do have limited capabilities which prohibit modeling of many complex project network forms. A more flexible generalized network tool which has received increased attention recently is GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) [5], GERT includes features such as probabilistic branching (stochastic models), network looping (feedback loops), multiple sink nodes (multiple outcomes), and multiple node realization (repeat events) which are unavailable in PERT/CPM. These GERT features provide the user with the capability to model and analyze projects and systems of a very general form. Since many real-world system problems do involve probabilistic occurences, false-starts, activity repetition, and multiple outcomes, GERT is an ideal tool for the modeling and analysis.

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the GERT network modeling technique and simulation package, and demonstrate its capabilities via an example of R&D project planning. Included in this overview of GERT will be a discussion of the use of GERT output for management planning and control including sensitivity analysis and implementation.

    GERT Modeling

    The conceptual framework for construction of PERT/CPM networks is straight forward and generally well-known. However, since GERT networks are similar in construction to PERT/CPM networks it will be useful to briefly review the PERT/CPM components.

    PERT/CPM networks consist of two major components, activities and events. Network activities represent actual operations of the real-world project, while events represent milestones in the project that occur at a point in time. Events can represent the beginning or end of an activity or both; and, the beginning or end of both of more than one activity. Activities generally consume time and resources. In network configuration, events are represented by arrows. PERT and CPM differ in that in CPM activities are assumed to have only a single time for duration while in PERT the activity times are probabilistic, and typically described by a three estimate beta distribution. (For a more detailed explanation of PERT and CPM see [5]).

    Figure 1. The GERT Characteristics

    Figure 1 presents a brief schematic which highlights the differences between PERT/CPM and GERT, and demonstrates the various GERT characteristics and attributes [5] [8] [9] [13]. The primary difference between PERT/CPM and GERT networks is that GERT has two types of nodes, deterministic and probabilistic [4], Node 3 in Figure 1 (the identification number is on the right-hand side of the cone shaped node) is a probabilistic node. Instead of one deterministic branch (arrow) as in PERT/CPM there are four possible outcomes each with a probability of occurrence. Thus, at a probabilistic node a choice situation exists where one of several alternatives may be selected based on the associated probabilities. However, the sum of the probabilities for all activities emanating from a probabilistic node must be 1.00 (i.e., there is a 1.0 probability that one of the activities will be realized).

    If the activity emanating from node 3 and looping back to node 2 occurs, this would cause activity 2-3 to be repeated. If, on the other hand, the activity labeled “failure” was realized, the network might flow to a “sink” node which ends the network. Alternatively, if the activity labeled “success” is realized, the network might continue for several more activities before the network ended in another (different) “sink” node. The fourth activity at node 3 is activity 3-3 representing a self-loop back to the same node. These alternative activities reflect the feedback, multiple outcome and repeating activities characteristics of GERT.

    Node 2 is a deterministic node as used in PERT/CPM. Because node 2 is deterministic, the probability of realization for activity 2-3 is 1.0. In both node 2 and node 3 the number is the upper left-hand quadrant represents the number of releases necessary for the first realization of the node (in both cases shown only one activity release is required). The number in the lower left quadrant of each node is the number of activity releases required for all subsequent realizations of the node.

    GERT is relatively easy to use since it requires only that the project of interest be (1) diagrammed in network form, (2) converted to program input data describing the network, and (3) simulated using the prewritten GERTS-IIIZ simulation package 5 . By simulating the network, statistical data can be collected at different nodes for network duration and cost. The GERTS-IIIZ program is maintained by Pritsker and Associates, Inc. (P.O. Box 2413 West Lafayette, Indiana 47906) and copies can be purchased for several hundred dollars. The program is written in FORTRAN IV and can be operated using any FORTRAN complier. The program is accompanied by a user’s manual which makes use of the program quite simple for anyone with minimal computer skills (also, see [5l). This ease with which GERT can be implemented facilitates model experimentation, network modification and sensitivity analysis.

    स्रोत : www.pmi.org

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